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Fitch has cut the credit ratings of Sony and Panasonic to junk, saying that the recovery of both companies rests on aggressive and far-reaching restructuring.

On Thursday the credit rating agency docked Sony three notches to BB-, from BBB-, and Panasonic two notches to BB, from BBB-. Fitch justified the cuts – which made it the first major agency to strip either company of investment-grade ratings – by citing a long list of challenges, including loss of technology leadership in key products and the strong yen.

“This wasn’t an easy decision,” said Matt Jamieson, Seoul-based head of corporate research. “But their reputations have been hit so much that it’ll take a long while to crawl back.”

The downgrades come as both giants of the Japanese consumer electronics sector, with almost 500,000 employees between them, are suffering from falling competitiveness in televisions and other cornerstone products. Last month Panasonic warned it was on course for its second $10bn net loss in two years for the year to March 2013, while Sony posted its seventh consecutive quarterly net loss in the three months to September.
Fitch noted that both companies had solid buffers of cash, and also had profitable, cash-generating units such as Panasonic’s domestic appliance business and Sony’s image-sensing division. If executives can take an axe to the problem areas such as TVs for Sony and personal computers for Panasonic, then the rapid downgrades need not necessarily lead to more, said Mr Jamieson.

“I don’t think the banks will push either of these companies to the wall,” said Damian Thong, an equity analyst at Macquarie Securities in Tokyo. “But they do need to convince people that tough restructuring moves will be done in good time, while minimising unnecessary damage to healthy businesses.”

Sony and Panasonic have been two of the worst seven performers on the Nikkei 225 stock average since the beginning of last year, down 72 per cent and 65 per cent respectively, as investors have weighed the heavy costs of job losses and factory closures.
Over a longer horizon, a revival is possible, said Steve Durose, Fitch’s head of Asia Pacific technology, media and telecoms ratings, especially if the yen continues its recent weakening trend. But he said that the duo’s chances of rediscovering technological leadership to develop “must-have products” were hampered by their inability to invest as much as competitors.

While Sony and Panasonic will average about $2.5bn and $4bn, respectively, in capital spending over the next couple of years, Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics (including LG Display), for example, will spend $22bn and $5.5bn respectively.

“Without a radical change to the structure of their businesses it is difficult to see profitability improving enough for them to regain investment-grade ratings,” said Mr Durose.

According to Fitch’s spectrum, BB ratings indicate that companies are vulnerable to defaulting on debt over time, but have sufficient flexibility for now to keep servicing that debt.

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Nintendo should talk to Sega about the jump button thing. And the platforming thing. And the kart racing thing. And...

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"Whatever happens, the teams and products look likely to end up together and in good hands. That means you can still pre-order Metro: Last Light, Company of Heroes 2, and South Park: The Stick of Truth.

"Our teams are still working on those titles as you read this, and all other rumored titles, like the fourth Saints Row, the Homefront sequel, and a lot more are also still in the works."