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| Mafia 48 | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Sep 26 2010, 04:04:36 AM (2,349 Views) | |
| Lemon | Oct 10 2010, 09:10:56 AM Post #101 |
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I didn't know you could change this
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Luneth's thing sounds pretty solid to me, even if it is kinda light on word count. Fish - 2 (Lunny, LEmon) |
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| CATZ | Oct 10 2010, 05:52:38 PM Post #102 |
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oh u
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capn is not alive to pinpoint mafia, so wheeeeeee bandwagon Fish - 3 (Lunny, LEmon, CATZ) |
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| SleepyMage | Oct 10 2010, 06:06:13 PM Post #103 |
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Sure, I guess. Fish - 4 (Lunny, LEmon, CATZ, Sleepy) |
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| Blade Myrmidon | Oct 11 2010, 05:11:58 AM Post #104 |
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there's never enough time
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nope, now you're all dead |
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| mr_e_s | Oct 11 2010, 06:49:58 AM Post #105 |
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... |
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| Zoe | Oct 11 2010, 07:16:23 AM Post #106 |
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so 4/8 I'd also like to point out there's 3 mafia left, so count RIGHT now is 5-3; I'd also like to point out Fish hasn't posted so he's going to die after this day whether you lynch him or not I'd prod him on MSN, but I stated the rules before making the game you guys better get some voting going on or I'll no lynch it |
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| CATZ | Oct 11 2010, 07:17:53 AM Post #107 |
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oh u
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i voted is all i can do |
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| Zoe | Oct 11 2010, 07:18:31 AM Post #108 |
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appreciated m'dear |
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| Lemon | Oct 11 2010, 07:47:50 AM Post #109 |
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I didn't know you could change this
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Uh, well, jeez, 5-3. A no-lynch is... bad, but fish is gonna die anyway. If he's a cit then that takes us to mafia victory after the night. So, we really have to nail this lynch down. I'll write up a big analysis in the morning if I have time. |
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| Luneth | Oct 12 2010, 08:04:28 PM Post #110 |
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Possibly Fake Luneth
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Well, Cap'n voted for Sleepy last time, and he's obviously not Mafia. Sounds good enough to me, even though it goes against my earlier (quite excellent) evaluation of the situation. Sleepy - 1 (Luneth) Fush the Dead Man - moot (some people who were convinced by my excellent evaluation of the situation) |
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| CATZ | Oct 12 2010, 08:07:13 PM Post #111 |
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oh u
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fair enough, fish is going to die anyways Sleepy - 2 (Luneth, CATZ) Fush - something (people) besides capn voted for sleepy obviously we must follow his vote, he knows who the mafia are Edited by CATZ, Oct 12 2010, 08:07:44 PM.
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| SleepyMage | Oct 12 2010, 09:30:19 PM Post #112 |
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At least my lynch will lower Cap'n's credibility. >_> |
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| Lemon | Oct 12 2010, 11:50:06 PM Post #113 |
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I didn't know you could change this
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If at least one of them is mafia, then it provides us with an extra day that a no-lynch or mislynch will not give us. Odds are greatly in our favour. Sleepy - 2 (Luneth, WJC) Fish - 2 (Lemon, sleepy) |
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| CATZ | Oct 13 2010, 01:23:50 AM Post #114 |
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oh u
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i'm honestly only voting for sleepy because i want to see if cap'n's cockiness is justified, it's as good a reason as any other (unless someone feels like breaking out the laws and explaining how they point to someone else) judging by sleepy's response, it's not justified, people who are less active are generally not that ballsy unless they're being wrongly accused Edited by CATZ, Oct 13 2010, 01:24:21 AM.
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| Zoe | Oct 13 2010, 07:31:36 AM Post #115 |
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it's still only 4/8, I'm giving it until tomorrow afternoon and then I'm no lynching. If fish doesn't vote or at the very least post before then, he's dead 14 hours |
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| mr_e_s | Oct 13 2010, 09:03:48 AM Post #116 |
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I never thought Sleepy was mafia. I just knew raak wasn't. |
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| CATZ | Oct 13 2010, 07:31:09 PM Post #117 |
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oh u
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so we should follow your vote, but you're admittedly unsure of who is mafia, i see i assume you only knew raak's identity due to him investigating you, which means there was still no amazing insight or deduction on your part also, silence zombie |
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| Luneth | Oct 13 2010, 07:32:35 PM Post #118 |
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Possibly Fake Luneth
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Be less pissy plx. |
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| CATZ | Oct 13 2010, 07:37:19 PM Post #119 |
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oh u
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yeah let's all be friendly and get along mafia is all about togetherness and trusting everyone, conflict has no place in it |
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| mr_e_s | Oct 13 2010, 09:24:25 PM Post #120 |
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Yeah, but you're being pissy with a dead guy, no need to distrust me. |
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| SuperFush | Oct 13 2010, 09:50:32 PM Post #121 |
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Ruler of the Seas
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Well, I can say quite truthfully that it isn't me, but no one will believe that anyways, since everyone says that whether it's true or not. My first objection to fingering me as the murderer in the scenario is the mess. Or rather, the lack of it. Disemboweling something is an extremely messy affair, and not something easy to clean up afterwards. Even if you can get rid of the grime, getting rid of the smell is a different thing. Even a little fish stinks if you cut into its guts (something I would know) and the smell has a tendency to stick to things, including not only your clothes, but also you. If I'm not stinking of Cap'n's guts, then it's highly unlikely I was the one to kill him. As for the flashlight thing, well, it's tenuous at best, and we do know that there will be red herrings in the death write-ups. This is clearly one of them. Finding real clues to the killer's identity has proven difficult. However!
This is not true. The odds are terribly against us at this point, because one misstep spells doom. Clearly, you want us to fail by leading us into a trap. Lemon: 1 (Fish) Sleepy: 2 (Luneth, Walter) Fish: 2 (Lemon, Sleepy) |
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| CATZ | Oct 13 2010, 10:11:47 PM Post #122 |
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oh u
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you won't be dead next game, at which point your credibility will once again be relevant although, that's only providing that we have a next game, and that you don't die on the first or second night (funny how bad the BGs are at protecting you, given your penchant for early death), so maybe i'm wasting my time after all
i don't think you thought your clever plan all the way through 5 cits, 3 mafia let's suppose we mislynch 1 guy, now the mafia kill 1 guy at night, result is 3 cits and 3 mafia on the next day phase; mafia don't have a majority yet but they can deadlock the lynch/force a double lynch, so the game is for all intents and purposes, finished once this happens point being, we're screwed anyways if we don't lynch a mafia today, regardless of whether we lynch 1 person or 2 so why is lemon proposing double lynch? obviously a single lynch on a mafia is our ideal outcome, but without cap'n we can't count on that happening; the advantage of double lynch is increased odds of hitting a mafia, since you know, flipping 2 coins instead of 1. assuming cit + mafia get lynched, outcome on the next day phase is 3 cits vs 2 mafia, so we're still in the game, albeit by the skin of our teeth bottom line: single lynch gives us a bigger advantage if it works, but its also more likely to misfire, double lynch will only misfire if we lynch 2 cits (which is basically the same as lynching 1, as explained above) so no, it's a viable option, and not necessarily a mafia trap here is where i'd normally point the finger at you, as the mafia hastily trying to escape the double-lynch net you've been snared in, but the fact that you've been 100% inactive until now and are only posting because cap'n IM'd you means that in reality, odds are you're either a normal cit or just way smarter than the rest of us in the meantime, leaving my vote where it is until i see other folks' reactions (or possibly lack thereof) |
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| Waddacku | Oct 13 2010, 10:26:34 PM Post #123 |
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Honestly, all in all, looking over who voted for who and all that, Luneth strikes me as smelling of mafia. Plenty of leading on lynches with weak reasoning, populism, and all that other wonderful stuff. Thread's not long, you can go look for yourselves, if I try writing some big kind of analysis I'd just half-ass it anyway (much like many of the motivations for lynches, strangely enough...). Sleepy doesn't really have anything to call suspicion to, either, he was just an alternative vote because of certainty regarding raak's not being mafia. Also, consider the possibility of Lemon being mafia. Turns that start of the first day into a pretty nice setup. WJC might be mafia or just being useless, Reikken might be (fits with hanging out with Lemon if Lemon's mafia, according to clues, and that bit about hoping to survive the horror session could actually point to a certain mafia member as well, if you want to look at the clues, too). None of them really have an alibi for anything by the clues, either. Fish does have the end of the last night clue against him, on the other hand, though nearly dying from inactivity doesn't strike me as mafia-like. Luneth, Lemon and WJC jumping on him at once also makes me suspect him a bit less. Voting for Lemon due to current standings. Losing two cits kills us. Killing two cits and a mafia puts us in the same boat as killing one cit, while leaving us with less people in the game, making pinpointing mafia potentially easier. If I'm right and we get the vote switched over and kill mafia instead of cit, well, that's a hell of a plus, isn't it? Lemon: 2 (Fish, Waddy) Sleepy: 2 (Luneth, Walter) Fish: 2 (Lemon, Sleepy) |
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| CATZ | Oct 13 2010, 11:03:11 PM Post #124 |
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oh u
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luneth strikes me as apathetic, not mafia
dunno bout you, but that looks to me like the reasoning of someone who just doesn't care, not someone who is actually trying to turn the crowd against itself
its funny that i go out of way to state that fish is probably a cit, and not vote for him, and i'm still accused of "jumping on him" anyways totally leaving my vote where it is now, because if we're all really awesome and don't touch anything, we've got a TRIPLE LYNCH on our hands, and that would be way more awesome than anything else that's happened in this silly game come on guys let's do this |
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| CATZ | Oct 13 2010, 11:16:10 PM Post #125 |
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oh u
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i have to point out before anyone undercuts me and points the finger, though:
this is kind of vague and i'm not sure what it means, but from what i can see, there's 2 possibilities and neither one makes sense/is in the cits' best interests: 1. you meant that killing 2 cits and 1 mafia with a triple lynch today puts us in the same boat as killing 1 cit and 1 mafia with a double lynch, which it does NOT do, 2 cits today + 1 on night phase + 1 mafia = 2 cits + 2 mafia tomorrow, game over 2. you meant that killing 2 cits and 1 mafia with trip lynch lands us in the same boat as killing only 1 cit with a single lynch, which it does, but in that case why did you bother to point out while "leaving us with less people in the game, making pinpointing mafia potentially easier?" here i should remind you that the outcome you're referring to is an equal number of cits and mafia on the next day phase, which results in auto-win for mafia, so what does it matter if it's easier to pinpoint them? even if the mafia start dancing around naked and screaming "I'M MAFIA" we won't be able to do jack about it no matter how you slice it your plan doesn't make sense/isn't a viable option, while lemon's double-lynch idea was still a viable option, so now if i was playing completely seriously, i'd vote for you but in the interest of producing a TRIPLE LYNCH, i won't do so yet Edited by CATZ, Oct 13 2010, 11:16:39 PM.
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| SuperFush | Oct 13 2010, 11:32:28 PM Post #126 |
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Ruler of the Seas
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A triple lynch would be a very bad idea, since it's highly unlikely that we'll lynch all three or even just two mafia. We'd lose more than we gain. |
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| Lemon | Oct 14 2010, 12:13:27 AM Post #127 |
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I didn't know you could change this
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Hmm. Double lynch is certainly beneficial compared to triple lynch, single lynch, or no lynch. And yet, if I remove my vote, then I die. I find fish to be the most likely mafia, so I'd greatly prefer for him to be one of the victims (removing my vote does not make this happen). Waddy had some reasoning for voting for me (I'll retort it in a while) whereas the only reason to vote for sleepy has been nullified (other than that he already has two votes on him). Fish coming back to post certainly helps the situation a bit. Ideally, Lunny or WJC would remove their votes. I'd rather take sleepy and fish down personally (as I know I'm a cit so then we have to rely on the other being mafia) but I'm willing to take fish down. Just don't make it me and sleepy, damn it. Lemon: 2 (Fish, Waddy) Sleepy: 2 (Luneth, Walter) Fish: 2 (Lemon, Sleepy) |
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| Zoe | Oct 14 2010, 12:15:05 AM Post #128 |
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I'm assuming you want more time, two hours then I'll lynch |
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| Lemon | Oct 14 2010, 12:34:50 AM Post #129 |
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I didn't know you could change this
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Well, jeez. 1 mafia and 2 cits is just as bad as 2 cits; so we really need 1 mafia 1 cit, guys. Since I'm not gonna be here in 2 hours, take any last minute action with my vote to secure a double lynch (as opposed to a triple, but not a single (meaning I'm ok with a single)), regardless of who's getting lynched. |
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| Waddacku | Oct 14 2010, 12:48:10 AM Post #130 |
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Yeah, totally going out of your way there and not voting for him. Triple lynch is better than the double lynch we had going since it has greater chance of getting us mafia, and both it and single cit lynch leaves us with a 1 cit lead over the mafia, meaning SAME FUCKING BOAT. A double lynch where we had any solid reason for believing either was mafia? Sure, but all the reasons sucked. And going into night phase with one more cit than mafia isn't guaranteed loss by any means. We still have Bodyguard and Vigilante in play. With the triple lynch, there are fewer people left to choose between, and we'd have gotten some data out of who was and wasn't mafia. Greater risk of losing special roles, but things are a gamble. Hell, might straight up lose us the game, but it's not like we'd be particularly more likely to win next day phase. |
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| Luneth | Oct 14 2010, 02:27:33 AM Post #131 |
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Possibly Fake Luneth
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Lemon: 2 (Fish, Waddy) Sleepy: 2 (Luneth, Walter) Fish: 2 (Lemon, Sleepy) Kay, so, this is a pretty interesting vote. According to my earlier analysis, of the 4 people not voting for Fish, one of them is likely Godfather. However, the two voting for Fish each have a 50% chance of being mafia within their pairings, so to speak. They're also two people being voted for. In that respect, Lemon is probably a safer vote than Fish, and so my vote is shifted. Lemon: 3 (Fish, Waddy, Luneth) Sleepy: 1 (Walter) Fish: 2 (Lemon, Sleepy) My money's on Walter for GF, though we have little proof to support that right now. Lemon is our safest vote imo. |
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| CATZ | Oct 14 2010, 02:34:10 AM Post #132 |
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oh u
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@ wadds: where did you pull that paragraph from? i assume you messed up your quote tags and that's you talking EDIT: nvm, fix'd
that quote you pulled being back when you know, he was 100% inactive and on the train to being mod-killed now he's actually posting and not going to auto-die anymore, which tends to change things
yeah, that boat being that if the BG/vig don't step up, we're fucked, as we'll have no chance to lynch anyone again. your plan pretty much leaves everything in the hands of the roles, whereas the double lynch is the most likely to give us a second chance if they don't come through. in order to outnumber the mafia tomorrow even if our roles fail, your triple lynch needs to kill 2 mafia today, whereas the double lynch only needs to kill 1. now if my math here is correct--and admittedly it may not be, but i tried--the odds for killing at least 2 mafia on a triple lynch are around 1/3, while the odds for killing at least 1 on a double are close to 2/3. you're right that we'll have more information tomorrow, and with a double we have a greater chance of being able to utilize that information as opposed to sitting on our asses and being unable to do anything with it b/c we no longer outnumber the mafia taking the most likely outcomes of each, triple lynch's (~70% odds) is to kill 2 or more cits, while the most likely outcome for a double lynch (as stated above) is to kill 1 mafia + 1 cit. the most likely outcome for the double lynch >>>> the most likely for the triple.
yeah they've been doing a great job so far, the BG has been either inactive or outplayed, and the vig will be shooting blind, if he even shoots at all (although i guess he'll have to if we triple lynch and kill off 2 cits like you want us to). not putting my money on them. even assuming they're competent though, you should keep in mind that your triple lynch has, in addition to a higher chance to kill a mafia, a higher chance to kill 1 or both special roles before the night phase even gets here. that aspect of your plan kind of clashes with the part where you think it's a good idea to put all our money on them then we have the single lynch which is just a flat 37.5% chance to nail a mafia; the 62.5% chance to kill a cit is only slightly better odds than the triple lynch so yeah, i gotta go with the double here and since lunny screwed up the TRIPLE LYNCH anyways Lemon: 3 (Fish, Waddy, Luneth) Fish: 3 (Lemon, Sleepy, CATZ) Edited by CATZ, Oct 14 2010, 02:34:27 AM.
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| SuperFush | Oct 14 2010, 02:49:23 AM Post #133 |
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No, what we need is 1 mafia no citizens Edited by SuperFush, Oct 14 2010, 02:49:45 AM.
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| Luneth | Oct 14 2010, 02:51:19 AM Post #134 |
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Possibly Fake Luneth
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2 Mafia no citizens, even! |
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| SuperFush | Oct 14 2010, 02:55:02 AM Post #135 |
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Ruler of the Seas
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Except you're lynching me! That's not productive! |
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| CATZ | Oct 14 2010, 02:57:53 AM Post #136 |
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oh u
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no we need a TRIPLE LYNCH, because TRIPLE LYNCH but you bastards ruined it |
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| Luneth | Oct 14 2010, 03:01:54 AM Post #137 |
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Possibly Fake Luneth
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I'm not lynching you anymore! Blame everyone but me for listening to me! When have I ever had sound opinions? Geez. |
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| Android | Oct 14 2010, 03:04:12 AM Post #138 |
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woahicanhaveatitle
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So, Fish shows up after doing nothing for the entire game to save himself and take a desperate stab at a lynch, and Luneth (who's vote keeps jumping around constantly for little reason) and Waddy jump behind him immediately? A bit suspicious if you ask me. Lemon: 3 (Fish, Waddy, Luneth) Fish: 4 (Lemon, Sleepy, CATZ, Sam) |
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| Waddacku | Oct 14 2010, 03:09:48 AM Post #139 |
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Except I picked Lemon out of my list of suspects because of him already having a vote, because I felt under the circumstances that had a greater chance of letting us survive than lynching the other two. Either way I got rid of the double lynch of people I did not think should get lynched, which was the most important part. |
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| SuperFush | Oct 14 2010, 03:13:42 AM Post #140 |
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Ruler of the Seas
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Damnit, you guys. Don't lynch me. You will lose if you lynch me. |
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| CATZ | Oct 14 2010, 03:17:30 AM Post #141 |
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oh u
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what? obviously you're doing what you think is best, or claiming to. that doesn't address the fact that you and lunny hopped on behind fush i didn't think fish was mafia at first, but this high level of defensiveness, sketchy logic from both you and fish, and convenient support of each other has done quite alot to change that opinion |
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| raak | Oct 14 2010, 03:19:45 AM Post #142 |
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... Oh crap.
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Is just a game. Also, I didn't told Cap'n I investigated him , the knowledge of my innocence isn't related to my role. |
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| Waddacku | Oct 14 2010, 03:21:58 AM Post #143 |
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My entire reasoning for not lynching fish is that more points to some other people being mafia. I'm attacking, not defending. |
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| Luneth | Oct 14 2010, 03:27:21 AM Post #144 |
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Possibly Fake Luneth
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Calling it now: Lemon and Sam are mafia, WJC is GF. Game over after this lynch. |
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| Waddacku | Oct 14 2010, 03:30:37 AM Post #145 |
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I could see that constellation being the case. |
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| Zoe | Oct 14 2010, 03:32:21 AM Post #146 |
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updating~ also dead people; DONT post |
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| SuperFush | Oct 14 2010, 03:41:11 AM Post #147 |
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I agree with Lunny. |
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| CATZ | Oct 14 2010, 03:41:30 AM Post #148 |
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oh u
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And it is that decision/reasoning that you are defending so hard, with pretty flimsy reasoning i might add
looks like this is the closest you came to giving any sort of concrete reason for your suspicions, and it's still pretty vague, i'm not sure what you're getting at fish's reasoning was even worse, which would be cool if he had said anything meaningful after this fact was pointed out, but instead he reverted to the very convincing "please don't lynch me guys" luneth seems to be following the clues, so i can't comment cause i totally haven't been following them, except to say that i haven't been following them because there's red herrings/multi-clues point being that none of you guys are making sense, as opposed to lemon whose given reasons for his choices are half-decent not that any of this matters though, it's mafia, people just act on their suspicions/intuition regardless of which side presents any degree of reasoning or evidence for their choices; in fact, attempting to provide credible evidence or point out the other side's notable lack of evidence often just leads to people thinking you're mafia cause you're writing alot and paying attention to stuff, as i suspect is the case with me being accused |
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| Zoe | Oct 14 2010, 03:43:30 AM Post #149 |
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requested 30 minutes and since there's good discussion going on... you have that, not a second longer then I'm updating no matter what the votes stand at happy voting~~<3 |
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| SuperFush | Oct 14 2010, 03:44:09 AM Post #150 |
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Ruler of the Seas
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It doesn't actually matter unless Sleepy shows up to pull a Big Damn Hero on us. |
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8:48 AM Jul 11