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Observer; 11/16/06
Topic Started: Nov 16 2006, 08:47 AM (1,001 Views)
4kids
Principal
I heard of many, many more that have left from many people who said they did not do the survey. Some left right away, before the survey was out there.
And the survey was not reachable for many either, and I bet people didn't do it because they didn't want to be known why they left the district, including teachers who work in the district.
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Hull_CHS
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There are many of us that have chosen to homeschool our children, specifically because of the L.I.
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c3hull
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I know of a few families that decided to Home School and a few went to St. Paul's Lutheran. Notice how the biggest exodus was the elementary kids. That is due to the LIe, not the economy!
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fyi
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Quote:
 
Middle school enrollment declined by 128 students


This seems like a large loss at this level. I wonder what the loss at this level was last year? Is this normal?
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49chevy
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livoniamom
Nov 16 2006, 12:55 PM
So if St. Mikes only gained "a few" from LPS and St. Edith's gained 6 and St. Damian's got zero from LPS -- were did the 90-some other students go???  Many to the montesory because it is tuition free??? 

I am not a math analyst but after reading this articles I am still not what effect the LI had on enrollment.  Are we ever going to know??

We moved our 4th grader to Clarenceville...Grandview. He knows of 4 others from LPS there. Wonder how many others are there that he does not know about???
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Livonia Voter
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ILIkeLI
Nov 16 2006, 10:03 AM
Kindergarten enrollment is the most difficult to predict, Liepa said.

Come on now. This self-serving double-talk is out of control. Do all of you remember how parents begged to put the LI on hold because they felt neighborhoods were beginning to turn over in favor of younger families? People were concerned that too many schools would be closed at once and leave no room for growth. The admin. responded VERY confidently as they described the process of enrollment prediction and how their guru was historically within 1%. They were so confident in this guys ability that his prediction of a decline was the foundation for the LI.
Now enrollment is so "difficult too predict"?
Nothing but contradictions...What is it Randy, are you guys awesome at predicting enrollment or is it just too difficult???


Whatever happened to thier expert who was always within 1/2 a percent?

Has anyone called him to ask his opinion as to why LPS lost so many students?

Does anyone think he will say it's just the economy?


Sigh...


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mikefromholland
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fyi
Nov 16 2006, 07:52 PM
Quote:
 
Middle school enrollment declined by 128 students


This seems like a large loss at this level. I wonder what the loss at this level was last year? Is this normal?

The raw number by itself is not meaningful. I don't remember on which thread Nancy F. posted the grade by grade enrollment data recently (I meant to copy it into a spreadsheet by didn't get around to it). Compare the number of 6th graders last year to the number of 9th graders. That provides a good starting point for projecting changes in middle school enrollment. (Your middle schools are 7-9?). Or get the district's projections broken down by grade level and see what they were expecting in the middle school this year. Then you can start to draw an inference about whether this was normal or not.

I will mention an observation I made in Holland, although it was not statistically significant (because of the low numbers involved). Large and significant losses were observed in the elementary grades after focus schools were implemented. But some small losses were also observed in grades 6 and 7 which are in the middle school in Holland. A possible mechanism to explain this would be families pulling kids out of middle school grades, even though there were no changes there, to keep those kids together with the elementary age kids who were being sent to a different school.
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fyi
Principal
Livonia Voter
Nov 16 2006, 10:04 PM
a
ILIkeLI
Nov 16 2006, 10:03 AM
Kindergarten enrollment is the most difficult to predict, Liepa said.

Come on now.  This self-serving double-talk is out of control.  Do all of you remember how parents begged to put the LI on hold because they felt neighborhoods were beginning to turn over in favor of younger families?  People were concerned that too many schools would be closed at once and leave no room for growth.  The admin. responded  VERY confidently  as they described the process of enrollment prediction and how their guru was historically within 1%.  They were so confident in this guys ability that his prediction of a decline was the foundation for the LI.
Now enrollment is so "difficult too predict"?
Nothing but contradictions...What is it Randy, are you guys awesome at predicting enrollment or is it just too difficult???


Whatever happened to thier expert who was always within 1/2 a percent?

Has anyone called him to ask his opinion as to why LPS lost so many students?

Does anyone think he will say it's just the economy?


Sigh...

I think it was 1/4 of a percent? :unsure:
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fyi
Principal
mikefromholland
Nov 16 2006, 11:00 PM
fyi
Nov 16 2006, 07:52 PM
Quote:
 
Middle school enrollment declined by 128 students


This seems like a large loss at this level. I wonder what the loss at this level was last year? Is this normal?

The raw number by itself is not meaningful. I don't remember on which thread Nancy F. posted the grade by grade enrollment data recently (I meant to copy it into a spreadsheet by didn't get around to it). Compare the number of 6th graders last year to the number of 9th graders. That provides a good starting point for projecting changes in middle school enrollment. (Your middle schools are 7-9?). Or get the district's projections broken down by grade level and see what they were expecting in the middle school this year. Then you can start to draw an inference about whether this was normal or not.

I will mention an observation I made in Holland, although it was not statistically significant (because of the low numbers involved). Large and significant losses were observed in the elementary grades after focus schools were implemented. But some small losses were also observed in grades 6 and 7 which are in the middle school in Holland. A possible mechanism to explain this would be families pulling kids out of middle school grades, even though there were no changes there, to keep those kids together with the elementary age kids who were being sent to a different school.

That's what I was thinking. Parents may be pulling their kids out and putting them in the same school---possibly a private school---k-8? Or perhaps the family moved out of Livonia? I have kids that range in age from 13-2. If we leave the district, they would be losing children from many different levels.
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mikefromholland
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fyi
Nov 17 2006, 08:00 AM
That's what I was thinking.  Parents may be pulling their kids out and putting them in the same school---possibly a private school---k-8? Or perhaps the family moved out of Livonia? I have kids that range in age from 13-2.  If we leave the district, they would be losing children from many different levels.

Yes, fyi, exactly the point. It's more likely to show up at middle school level rather than high school because a family with elementary age kids is more likely to have middle school age kids than it is to have high school age kids.
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fyi
Principal
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The district expected lower enrollment at the elementary level, Supt. Randy Liepa said: "It's one of the reasons that we were looking at closing schools."


Well.....that solves the whole mystery as to why the enrollment at the elementary level is much lower this year than it has been in the last ten years. I'm so glad they closed all the schools....I wonder what would have happened if they didn't close all the schools? :blink: :blink: :blink:
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