| Observer; 11/9/06 | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Nov 9 2006, 07:10 AM (1,313 Views) | |
| Zeke | Nov 9 2006, 04:28 PM Post #31 |
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Principal
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And next year count on another 4 million on top of the present numbers. It adds up to DISASTER! |
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| c3hull | Nov 9 2006, 05:36 PM Post #32 |
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Principal
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Remember Holland and Ferndale school districts saw even larger losses in enrollment the second Fall due to radical grade reconfiguration plans. Holy smokes, can you imagine if LPS losses more than 520 kids next Fall too? That will result in almost a $10 million loss because of the LIe. I think the BOE should fire Dr. LIEpa and get someone in here that can help mitigate our losses ASAP. The full impact of this trainwreck is still another year or two in the works!
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| Livonia Voter | Nov 9 2006, 05:47 PM Post #33 |
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Principal
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Which of course, makes it all the more amusing that they gave him a contract extention and a raise! |
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| 2tots | Nov 9 2006, 05:57 PM Post #34 |
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Principal
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You should post that on billboards around town, c3hull. Maybe that will get their attention. |
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| bob | Nov 9 2006, 07:39 PM Post #35 |
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1st Grade
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This connected math curriculum is a joke. My child is in fifth-grade and still has not been taught her 12 multiplication tables or how to divide a two-digit number. I say we get rid of the curriculum administrator along with the superintendent! :angry: |
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| Anna Krome | Nov 9 2006, 08:53 PM Post #36 |
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Principal
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Things are reaching a broiling point. Because over half of the Demos were not Livonia citizens, we must take into account that they really did not feel "vested" in LPS. How could they? Their bosses, the administration, "asked" them to find a "plan." Of course, they devised the plan outlined for them by their bosses. Anyone would. This is so ridiculous. AK |
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| 49chevy | Nov 9 2006, 09:38 PM Post #37 |
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Answers questioned
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I can name that feeling...it's sad..... |
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| mikefromholland | Nov 9 2006, 11:52 PM Post #38 |
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Principal
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Yes, excluding special ed and the alternative high school, Holland lost 210 kids in 2003 (the 1st year) and 243 kids in 2004 (the 2nd year). The reason I prefer to exclude special ed and alternative HS is that Holland had agreements to supply some of these services for the entire ISD and the numbers fluctuate greatly from year to year. The losses were concentrated in the elementary grades where the changes were made. 137 of the 210 were elementary K-5 students in the 1st year, and 165 of the 243 in the 2nd year. And those numbers somewhat understate the flight of elementary students from the district because, unlike Livonia, Holland has more kindergarteners than 5th graders. For example, in 2004, we had 478 kindergarteners to replace 389 fifth graders that had moved out of the elementary grades. So we were up 89 elementary kids on that basis -- and still managed to lose 165 in those grades! |
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| fyi | Nov 10 2006, 08:54 AM Post #39 |
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Principal
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LPS likes to compare the two to show future trends in enrollment. Comparing incoming kindergartners to the graduating class really doesn't give an accurate picture of declining enrollment---specifically those that left due to the LI. I would be interested to know in what grades Livonia lost students this year. I think that will give us a more accurate picture of how many left due to the grade re-configuration. Nancy's info sheds new light on the Dr.'s 'theory':
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| mikefromholland | Nov 10 2006, 12:46 PM Post #40 |
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Principal
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The combination of both factors is important. To focus on only one is misleading. If a district is going to focus on one of the factors, they should concentrate on the one they control -- how desirable their schools are at retaining students or attracting new students from grade to grade. The numbers in Nancy's table suggest that one reason for the fact that Livonia graduates more 12th graders than it enrolls new kindergarteners is that (at least up until this fall) the district attracted additional students as each kindergarten group (cohort) progressed to higher grades, as she states. I don't need a demographics committee or a fancy model to predict that Livonia will likely graduate more 12th graders this coming year than it did last year. The number of 12th grade graduates will stay relatively stable for two more years following that -- and then it will begin to drop off substantially. What will happen to kindergarten enrollments is more difficult to predict. I wish Nancy's table had about 5 or 10 years more data. The state website (CEPI) gives enrollment data back to 1991. What I observed in Holland's enrollment data -- and this was relatively consistent with U.S. Census Bureau data -- is that trends in kindergarten age population in a particular community have long cycles -- perhaps as long as 10 or 15 years from peak to valley back to peak. If I were forced to make a call based on the data in Nancy's table, I would say grade K enrollments in your district have hit bottom and are going to increase (in the absence of other factors such as a sudden change that affects parents' perception of the schools and the community). But I do not really have enough information in the table to be strongly confident. By not understanding population demographics, districts can act at exactly the wrong times, closing schools when a declining trend is about to turn around, or adding capacity when an increasing trend is about to change. I was not living in Holland in the late 80s but I wonder if such a mis-timed decision resulted in the district having what turned out to be double the middle school capacity it actually needed by the current day. (And we closed elementary schools???? HUH???) The "aging community" claim has no merit unless supported by U.S. Census Bureau or similar data. The same claim was made in Holland. I do not know if it is true in Livonia or not, but it was decisively false here in Holland. Unfortunately, few people know how to read the Census database or have the time to do it, while the statement of administrators and board members are printed in the newspaper and accepted as factual by the wide cross-section of the community. |
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