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Observer; 11/9/06
Topic Started: Nov 9 2006, 07:10 AM (1,313 Views)
Zeke
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Principal
And next year count on another 4 million on top of the present numbers.
It adds up to DISASTER!
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c3hull
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Principal
Remember Holland and Ferndale school districts saw even larger losses in enrollment the second Fall due to radical grade reconfiguration plans. Holy smokes, can you imagine if LPS losses more than 520 kids next Fall too? That will result in almost a $10 million loss because of the LIe.

I think the BOE should fire Dr. LIEpa and get someone in here that can help mitigate our losses ASAP. The full impact of this trainwreck is still another year or two in the works! :o :o :o
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Livonia Voter
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c3hull
Nov 9 2006, 05:36 PM
Remember Holland and Ferndale school districts saw even larger losses in enrollment the second Fall due to radical grade reconfiguration plans. Holy smokes, can you imagine if LPS losses more than 520 kids next Fall too? That will result in almost a $10 million loss because of the LIe.

I think the BOE should fire Dr. LIEpa and get someone in here that can help mitigate our losses ASAP. The full impact of this trainwreck is still another year or two in the works! :o :o :o


Which of course, makes it all the more amusing that they gave him a contract extention and a raise!

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2tots
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c3hull
Nov 9 2006, 05:36 PM
Remember Holland and Ferndale school districts saw even larger losses in enrollment the second Fall due to radical grade reconfiguration plans. Holy smokes, can you imagine if LPS losses more than 520 kids next Fall too? That will result in almost a $10 million loss because of the LIe.

I think the BOE should fire Dr. LIEpa and get someone in here that can help mitigate our losses ASAP. The full impact of this trainwreck is still another year or two in the works! :o :o :o

You should post that on billboards around town, c3hull. Maybe that will get their attention.
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bob
1st Grade
[ *  * ]
f11
Nov 9 2006, 07:27 AM
Ok, isn't there one huge problem with this?

"LPS loses 500 students, $2 million in revenue"


is this connected math?

This connected math curriculum is a joke. My child is in fifth-grade and still has not been taught her 12 multiplication tables or how to divide a two-digit number. I say we get rid of the curriculum administrator along with the superintendent! :angry:
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Anna Krome
Principal
Things are reaching a broiling point.

Because over half of the Demos were not Livonia citizens, we must take into account that they really did not feel "vested" in LPS.

How could they?

Their bosses, the administration, "asked" them to find a "plan." Of course, they devised the plan outlined for them by their bosses. Anyone would.

This is so ridiculous.

AK
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49chevy
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bob
Nov 9 2006, 07:39 PM
f11
Nov 9 2006, 07:27 AM
Ok, isn't there one huge problem with this?

"LPS loses 500 students, $2 million in revenue"


is this connected math?

This connected math curriculum is a joke. My child is in fifth-grade and still has not been taught her 12 multiplication tables or how to divide a two-digit number. I say we get rid of the curriculum administrator along with the superintendent! :angry:

I can name that feeling...it's sad.....
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mikefromholland
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c3hull
Nov 9 2006, 05:36 PM
Remember Holland and Ferndale school districts saw even larger losses in enrollment the second Fall due to radical grade reconfiguration plans. Holy smokes, can you imagine if LPS losses more than 520 kids next Fall too? That will result in almost a $10 million loss because of the LIe.

I think the BOE should fire Dr. LIEpa and get someone in here that can help mitigate our losses ASAP. The full impact of this trainwreck is still another year or two in the works!  :o  :o  :o

Yes, excluding special ed and the alternative high school, Holland lost 210 kids in 2003 (the 1st year) and 243 kids in 2004 (the 2nd year). The reason I prefer to exclude special ed and alternative HS is that Holland had agreements to supply some of these services for the entire ISD and the numbers fluctuate greatly from year to year.

The losses were concentrated in the elementary grades where the changes were made. 137 of the 210 were elementary K-5 students in the 1st year, and 165 of the 243 in the 2nd year. And those numbers somewhat understate the flight of elementary students from the district because, unlike Livonia, Holland has more kindergarteners than 5th graders. For example, in 2004, we had 478 kindergarteners to replace 389 fifth graders that had moved out of the elementary grades. So we were up 89 elementary kids on that basis -- and still managed to lose 165 in those grades!
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fyi
Principal
Det. News
Nov. 10th
"It's just an aging community," Liepa said, adding that the size of Livonia's graduating class has been larger than the kindergarten class for several years.


LPS likes to compare the two to show future trends in enrollment.

Comparing incoming kindergartners to the graduating class really doesn't give an accurate picture of declining enrollment---specifically those that left due to the LI.

I would be interested to know in what grades Livonia lost students this year. I think that will give us a more accurate picture of how many left due to the grade re-configuration.

Nancy's info sheds new light on the Dr.'s 'theory':

NF
 
UNAUDITED TOTAL FTES - FALL COUNT
05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01
General Ed 17071 17171 17362 17380 17444 17470
Special Ed 1061 1024 996 993 903 882
Adult Ed 82 178 203 200 202 163
Total Count 18214 18373 18561 18573 18549 18515

UNAUDITED STATE AID PUPILS - FALL COUNT

05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01
K 1152 1079 1182 1132 1140 1232
1 1094 1097 1117 1142 1240 1198
2 1133 1132 1151 1241 1211 1277
3 1145 1133 1263 1223 1287 1335
4 1157 1316 1243 1270 1344 1305
5 1332 1272 1285 1379 1308 1362
6 1293 1337 1420 1345 1352 1382
7 1353 1457 1383 1403 1411 1399
8 1465 1393 1421 1450 1417 1390
9 1515 1529 1552 1526 1486 1514
10 1491 1538 1502 1458 1435 1425
11 1510 1467 1453 1436 1402 1318
12 1424 1406 1382 1338 1312 1256
Total K-12 17064 17156 17354 17343 17375 17393
Special Ed 1061 1024 996 993 903 228
Adult Ed 7 15 8 37 69 77
Grand Total18132 18195 18358 18373 18347 18352

If you look at one particular graduating class (on the diagonal as it progresses year to year,) you can see that generally more students are added each year. For example, if you look at the Kindergarten class of 00/01, they started with 1232 kids and added a few each year. Last year they were in 5th grade and had 1332 (100 more than they started with.) There are some occasions where a few students are lost, but the trend is clear. Once the 06/07 numbers are released we can do a much more relevant analysis, but it is very clear that the number of Kindergarteners vs. graduating seniors is not an appropriate indicator. It is far more complicated than that.
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mikefromholland
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Principal
fyi
Nov 10 2006, 08:54 AM
Det. News
Nov. 10th
"It's just an aging community," Liepa said, adding that the size of Livonia's graduating class has been larger than the kindergarten class for several years.


LPS likes to compare the two to show future trends in enrollment.

Comparing incoming kindergartners to the graduating class really doesn't give an accurate picture of declining enrollment---specifically those that left due to the LI.

I would be interested to know in what grades Livonia lost students this year. I think that will give us a more accurate picture of how many left due to the grade re-configuration.

Nancy's info sheds new light on the Dr.'s 'theory':

NF
 
UNAUDITED TOTAL FTES - FALL COUNT
05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01
General Ed 17071 17171 17362 17380 17444 17470
Special Ed 1061 1024 996 993 903 882
Adult Ed 82 178 203 200 202 163
Total Count 18214 18373 18561 18573 18549 18515

UNAUDITED STATE AID PUPILS - FALL COUNT

05/06 04/05 03/04 02/03 01/02 00/01
K 1152 1079 1182 1132 1140 1232
1 1094 1097 1117 1142 1240 1198
2 1133 1132 1151 1241 1211 1277
3 1145 1133 1263 1223 1287 1335
4 1157 1316 1243 1270 1344 1305
5 1332 1272 1285 1379 1308 1362
6 1293 1337 1420 1345 1352 1382
7 1353 1457 1383 1403 1411 1399
8 1465 1393 1421 1450 1417 1390
9 1515 1529 1552 1526 1486 1514
10 1491 1538 1502 1458 1435 1425
11 1510 1467 1453 1436 1402 1318
12 1424 1406 1382 1338 1312 1256
Total K-12 17064 17156 17354 17343 17375 17393
Special Ed 1061 1024 996 993 903 228
Adult Ed 7 15 8 37 69 77
Grand Total18132 18195 18358 18373 18347 18352

If you look at one particular graduating class (on the diagonal as it progresses year to year,) you can see that generally more students are added each year. For example, if you look at the Kindergarten class of 00/01, they started with 1232 kids and added a few each year. Last year they were in 5th grade and had 1332 (100 more than they started with.) There are some occasions where a few students are lost, but the trend is clear. Once the 06/07 numbers are released we can do a much more relevant analysis, but it is very clear that the number of Kindergarteners vs. graduating seniors is not an appropriate indicator. It is far more complicated than that.

The combination of both factors is important. To focus on only one is misleading. If a district is going to focus on one of the factors, they should concentrate on the one they control -- how desirable their schools are at retaining students or attracting new students from grade to grade.

The numbers in Nancy's table suggest that one reason for the fact that Livonia graduates more 12th graders than it enrolls new kindergarteners is that (at least up until this fall) the district attracted additional students as each kindergarten group (cohort) progressed to higher grades, as she states.

I don't need a demographics committee or a fancy model to predict that Livonia will likely graduate more 12th graders this coming year than it did last year. The number of 12th grade graduates will stay relatively stable for two more years following that -- and then it will begin to drop off substantially.

What will happen to kindergarten enrollments is more difficult to predict. I wish Nancy's table had about 5 or 10 years more data. The state website (CEPI) gives enrollment data back to 1991. What I observed in Holland's enrollment data -- and this was relatively consistent with U.S. Census Bureau data -- is that trends in kindergarten age population in a particular community have long cycles -- perhaps as long as 10 or 15 years from peak to valley back to peak. If I were forced to make a call based on the data in Nancy's table, I would say grade K enrollments in your district have hit bottom and are going to increase (in the absence of other factors such as a sudden change that affects parents' perception of the schools and the community). But I do not really have enough information in the table to be strongly confident.

By not understanding population demographics, districts can act at exactly the wrong times, closing schools when a declining trend is about to turn around, or adding capacity when an increasing trend is about to change. I was not living in Holland in the late 80s but I wonder if such a mis-timed decision resulted in the district having what turned out to be double the middle school capacity it actually needed by the current day. (And we closed elementary schools???? HUH???)

The "aging community" claim has no merit unless supported by U.S. Census Bureau or similar data. The same claim was made in Holland. I do not know if it is true in Livonia or not, but it was decisively false here in Holland. Unfortunately, few people know how to read the Census database or have the time to do it, while the statement of administrators and board members are printed in the newspaper and accepted as factual by the wide cross-section of the community.
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