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Board of Education Meeting; Monday November 6, 2006
Topic Started: Nov 2 2006, 10:34 AM (2,665 Views)
rooseveltmom
Principal
Grant1
Nov 7 2006, 03:34 PM
Budgeted for a loss of 162 as projected by thier "experts" in central office.

Lost 520

520 - 162 = 358

I could safely say 358 left because of the LI. I can have no other assumption as there is no other correlative data to build a relationship to this number.

I remember the round table meeting. In all of it's glory. I remember statements that the "expert" was completly reliable, and I quote "scientific" and even included the loss due to the LIe. But sadly this is what happens when you use force and arogance as your position.
I can't help but remember the first few meetings and pleading. Genuine pleading from all sorts,,,seniors, parents and even children. I remember so many many people thinking that in this democracy we still had a voice. People stood in line to speak for hours,,,literaly hours. To have their concerns heard. Only to be dismissed.
I will never forget that day. The day of the vote. I won't forget the shock and dissapointment. I as well will not forget the lone voice of Mr. Bailey. Who, IMHO, has conviction and values. Not this side nor that. But I hope a concern and genuine compasion of what is right.
I don't know how to pick up the peices from here. My daughter is slated for that very long bus ride to Cooper next year. You can assume that she will be 521. And it saddens me so very much.
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mikefromholland
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mega millions
Nov 7 2006, 03:26 PM
ILIkeLI
Nov 7 2006, 02:26 PM
This is the biggest student loss in at least 10 years.  The LI rolled this year, you don't think that it contributed significantly to the loss? 
You don't have a problem with Dr. L lying to the Observer saying that Northville's numbers were also down?
I don't get why any one or group would want to support the administration so much so that they turn a deaf ear to the lies and the misleading information that the district disseminates.
Can we assume that you feel that the LI and it's "programs" were well worth the 520 student loss and the $4 million attached to that loss?

I certainly think that it is fair to say that we experienced a loss of students due to the Legacy Initative. We just don't have the backup to support the exact number of student loss attributed to the LI.

I was at the Conversation meeting where Mr. Varga got his information and I will tell you that Dr. Liepa stated that Northville had budgeted for a significant increase in students, did not get what they wanted and now have issues with what they had budgeted for. So I don't believe he misled anyone and he most certainly did not lie in that conversation meeting regarding Northville's numbers. He never said Northville experienced a loss of students. He only said they didn't get as many as they had budgeted for. Sometimes we just don't properly hear what is being said.

As for your assumption that I feel that the LI and it's "program"s were well worth the 520 student loss and the $4 million attached to that loss? Well the juries still out on that one. Again, you don't have any proof that 520 students were lost all because of the LI. We all know that there were losses attributed to it, but until we have that number, I will withhold judgment until that time.

mega, your point is well taken. I happen to agree in principle with the logic behind the calculation 520 - 168 = 352 as an initial estimate of the excess student losses associated with the LI. I used nearly identical logic to arrive at a number around 150 for the 1st year student loss in Holland -- the difference between the district's projections when planning the school reorganization and the actual count in the fall.

But an association does not prove causation (although the CFLF surveys provide at least anecdotal evidence of causation). Even the association is subject to the effects of other factors which might be contributing to student losses (or gains).

Now here is the bigger problem. It seems you are asking for decisive unequivocal proof of what the exact number is. I don't believe that exact number can be measured in Livonia or anywhere else.

I'm sitting here with 15+ years of enrollment data for Holland Public Schools, broken down by grade levels, subgroups, you name it ... plus similar data for local charter schools and neighboring districts. I have no idea how many dozens of hours I have spent analyzing this data. There are so many spreadsheets that sometimes I can't even find the one I'm looking for on my computer... And with all this information, all these facts, I still can't tell you the exact answer to the question, "How many students did Holland Public Schools lose since 2003 associated with the adoption of focus schools?"

I have used at least three different principal methods or measurements with other minor variations. All give different estimates though within a reasonable range of one another -- usually in the range of 100 to 200 students per year, each year, for at least the first two years. That reinforces my belief that my numbers are in the ballpark. But I believe the exact number can never be measured.

The sad thing here was that with the vast resources of the school district at their disposal, the people making the decisions here apparently knew less than I did as a private citizen as to what an estimate of the answer might be. Perhaps they really did know and just did not admit it publicly, but I find it hard to believe that people who I know sincerely had the best interests of the schools and kids at heart, would have left the focus schools in place for 3 years out of anything except a state of denial.
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c3hull
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Here's a story from tonight with a LPS parent who has one son at CHS, and pulled her 2 younger one to attend St. Mike's(one more will start Kindergarten at St. Mike's next year too). While at a football banquet for her CHS son this week, ALL of the parents at her table ironically had their younger children at St. Mike's and other NON LPS schools this year. They ALL said they pulled their kids because of the LIe, just like I did too!
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c3hull
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f11
Nov 7 2006, 04:16 PM
Grant1
Nov 7 2006, 03:34 PM
Budgeted for a loss of 162 as projected by thier "experts" in central office.

Lost 520

520 - 162 = 358

I could safely say 358 left because of the LI. I can have no other assumption as there is no other correlative data to build a relationship to this number.

You sure could safely say that....remember how "accurate" their historical enrollment projections have been.

LPS STATES: DISTRICT PROJECTIONS HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN ACCURATE TO WITHIN ONE QUARTER OF ONE PERCENT
WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT THEY ARE NEVER OFF BY MORE THAN 50 STUDENTS!

That quote was from the DR. of some sort that spoke the night the Demolition Committee "presented" the LIe to the BOE. Why did they have to present it to the BOE when 5 members were on the Demolition Committee in the first place? :ph43r:

Well, I wonder what the "Enrollment Projection DR." has to say now? I guess there's not a variable in his calculations to factor in the "community acceptance" of a radical grade re-configuration that has NO research to support it's implementation. :blink:
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c3hull
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mikefromholland
Nov 7 2006, 12:45 PM
Mrs.M
Nov 7 2006, 10:41 AM
If 520 is the number, maybe more maybe less, it's important too we all realize it's not 520 families, it's 520 students. Some siblings remained in LPS.

Since attendance and enrollment in Kindergarten is not a state requirement for parents (there are some children who do not attend a kindergarten), why wouldn't LPS use the first grade enrollment as the incoming count to compare with the twelfth grade count?

Does anyone know if comparing those numbers (1st and 12th) have a more varied outcome in the student enrollment over the years than the K and 12?

I don't have time to address this question now -- my lunch time is almost over -- but I'll try to post on the question later in the evening.

Yes the gap narrows if you look at 1st grade vs. 12th grade instead of K vs. 12th grade. Actually, if you look at several years of numbers, it's the same story. There has always been a larger number of graduating seniors vs. Kindergarteners. This is NOT a new trend. I haven't looked at the data myself but have had conversations with a few people who have. I would have to guess the biggest jump in enrollment may be in the 9th grade for kids finishing the K-8 schools, just a guess.
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NFarquharson
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Principal
ILIkeLI
Nov 7 2006, 11:37 AM
N...
It would be interesting for you to post what numbers you have so that we can see how LPS's reporting compares to WCRESA.

The WCRESA numbers are posted here:

http://z14.invisionfree.com/Hull_Neighbors...35#entry1017992
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fyi
Principal
c3hull
Nov 8 2006, 01:18 AM
mikefromholland
Nov 7 2006, 12:45 PM
Mrs.M
Nov 7 2006, 10:41 AM
If 520 is the number, maybe more maybe less, it's important too we all realize it's not 520 families, it's 520 students. Some siblings remained in LPS.

Since attendance and enrollment in Kindergarten is not a state requirement for parents (there are some children who do not attend a kindergarten), why wouldn't LPS use the first grade enrollment as the incoming count to compare with the twelfth grade count?

Does anyone know if comparing those numbers (1st and 12th) have a more varied outcome in the student enrollment over the years than the K and 12?

I don't have time to address this question now -- my lunch time is almost over -- but I'll try to post on the question later in the evening.

Yes the gap narrows if you look at 1st grade vs. 12th grade instead of K vs. 12th grade. Actually, if you look at several years of numbers, it's the same story. There has always been a larger number of graduating seniors vs. Kindergarteners. This is NOT a new trend. I haven't looked at the data myself but have had conversations with a few people who have. I would have to guess the biggest jump in enrollment may be in the 9th grade for kids finishing the K-8 schools, just a guess.

The "New" trend is losing 500+ students in one year! :o
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Administrator
Administrator
It is still disturbing that Dr. Liepa did not include Plymouth-Canton in his chart at this meeting. He used every other district neighboring Livonia. Why not show the whole truth?
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Hull_CHS
Principal
c3hull
Nov 8 2006, 01:01 AM
Here's a story from tonight with a LPS parent who has one son at CHS, and pulled her 2 younger one to attend St. Mike's(one more will start Kindergarten at St. Mike's next year too). While at a football banquet for her CHS son this week, ALL of the parents at her table ironically had their younger children at St. Mike's and other NON LPS schools this year. They ALL said they pulled their kids because of the LIe, just like I did too!

C3Hull, I must of been sitting at that table! While I still have a son a CHS, my two daughters are no longer students at LPS, I was amazed that out of everyone sitting at that table we had ALL pulled our children out of LPS.
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mikefromholland
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Hull_CHS
Nov 8 2006, 01:12 PM
c3hull
Nov 8 2006, 01:01 AM
Here's a story from tonight with a LPS parent who has one son at CHS, and pulled her 2 younger one to attend St. Mike's(one more will start Kindergarten at St. Mike's next year too). While at a football banquet for her CHS son this week, ALL of the parents at her table ironically had their younger children at St. Mike's and other NON LPS schools this year. They ALL said they pulled their kids because of the LIe, just like I did too!

C3Hull, I must of been sitting at that table! While I still have a son a CHS, my two daughters are no longer students at LPS, I was amazed that out of everyone sitting at that table we had ALL pulled our children out of LPS.

My daughter's charter school in Holland is substantially populated with refugees from the focus schools. My analysis estimated that for every 100 students added by the charter school in the elementary grades, Holland Public lost 45. Then I actually counted names in the charter school student directory to see how many elementary kids had addresses in the 49423 zip code (Holland city). It was 45 percent ... uncanny!

And yes, as the younger siblings of these kids grow up to school age, they are attending HPS for kindergarten (the charter doesn't offer K) and then transferring to the charter school for 1st grade.
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