Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]
Locked Topic
Article in Detroit Free Press; January 5, 2006
Topic Started: Jan 5 2006, 08:02 AM (595 Views)
2 kids
Principal
Anna Krome
Jan 5 2006, 10:38 AM
I've tried to "study" the enrollment numbers. I may be off here.

The numbers do not look dire to me in any way. For some years, the population changed more/less than 10 kids.

Saying that they've "declined" from 30 years ago does not give an accurate picture of what is happening now.

Any input here? Just seems like another soundbite for the masses to hang onto.

Anna Krome

Anna, I do agree with you to an extent. The overall numbers do not seem to be declining drastically at all. And yes, the comparison to where we were 30 years ago at 38,000 students are off base. Our enrollment has been increasing as recently as the late 90s and a few years ago, mostly due to growth in the SW end of the district (Johnson area).

The cause of concern is the declining incoming kindergarten numbers. Over the next several years, we won't see big overall declinins because the growth that happened 5-10 years ago is now translating into higher numbers in middle schools and high schools. But unless the kindergarten number come back up soon, we will start experiencing more significant declines.

Also, I think the projections fail to take into account people bringing kids into LPS middle and high schools from private schools at the 5th-7th grade level.

Offline Profile Goto Top
 
Anna Krome
Principal
Thanks for the clarity of your response.

Did the Demos take into account people w/very young children/preschoolers.

We have a lot of young couples moving in w/preschoolers.

Thanks,

Anna Krome
Offline Profile Goto Top
 
2 kids
Principal
Anna Krome
Jan 5 2006, 11:20 AM
Thanks for the clarity of your response.

Did the Demos take into account people w/very young children/preschoolers.

We have a lot of young couples moving in w/preschoolers.

Thanks,

Anna Krome

Good point about the preschoolers. The Jackson center is pretty full at the 3/4 age group level. Maybe those enrollment numbers can be a barometer?

Unfortunately, in our area, a lot of families with young kids are moving out, mostly because of the job issues with domestic automakers.
Offline Profile Goto Top
 
Anna Krome
Principal
Interesting about the auto industry and Wayne county property.

Our homes are less than $200,000 in our neck of the woods--entry point.

Those who have moved in near us do not work in the auto industry. New neighbors include a spec. ed teacher, an architect, a chemical engineer, an IT recruiter, a MSW.

Anna Krome
Offline Profile Goto Top
 
Iliveon-Levandownbytheriver
Member Avatar
Principal
Ya know...was talking to someone today about the enrollement decline issue. They brought up a good point. In the enrollment numbers....didnt they show a decrease in the Elem school area? If they did...then that would mean the elem schools would get smaller and smaller..in their projection.

So would they close more schools then in the future...if the population there gets smaller? Is this trend? Does this make sense?


P.S. Sorry about the spelling!
Offline Profile Goto Top
 
Momforone
Principal
I think the LPS had taken that inconsideration with the LI. That's why they are saying our schools with be a "little" overcrowed for the first few years. I'm not looking forward to it @ all. Hope the injunction works!
Offline Profile Goto Top
 
c3hull
Member Avatar
Principal
Here is most of an old post of mine "Fuzzy Math", back in October. This was also included in my letters to the BOE and Dem. Com.:

I'm sure your committee has more numbers to look at than I do, but the proposal numbers aren't adding up for me.In the committee's letter "Why is the Demographics Committee proposing changes?" One fact states that,"K-12 enrollments have declined in LPS from a high of 38,000 students in 1971 to 18,000 students today." It goes on to say, "During that time the district closed one high school, six middle schools and fourteen elementary schools." My question to the Committee is,” Why are you looking back beyond 30 years ago?" Then your letter explains how adjustments were made years ago by closing several schools due to the drop in enrollment, 21 in all.Your letter also states that our school district has experienced a decline in K-6 enrollment of 1,100 students. When I view the chart "K-12 Fourth Friday Student Count" at http://www.livonia.k12.mi.us/district/Fina...charts/k-12.jpg , it shows that the count in 1994/95 was 17,116 and is currently at 17,494. These figures indicated that there was an INCREASE of 378 students, not a decrease of 1,100! How did your committee reach statistics so different than the ones provided by LPS?My math background includes Calculus 4 and Statistics. I am aware of how easily numbers can be manipulated to make changes look very appealing statistically to those who do not have an extensive mathematics background.Why are you using numbers for K-6 from 10 years ago? The youngest children from that year are now 15 and in High School. Also, the peak of enrollment on the chart shows this occurred in 1998/99, reaching 17,729 students. This shows a 1/5 of 1% drop annually. Over the past seven years, this equates a 1.8% loss of 235 students, when looking at our WHOLE district, not just a sector. Marshall has already been closed as an adjustment for this most recent loss. What is the basis for the proposed further closings? Also, when looking at the ENTIRE chart since 1992/93, the enrollment for K-12 was only 16,801 students, and is now at 17,494 for 2004/05. Therefore, we actually have a 4% INCREASE of 693 students over the past 13 years, RIGHT? When these numbers provided by LPS are presented properly, a much more optimistic view appears! These findings do not reveal the bleak picture of our
Offline Profile Goto Top
 
Tyler_Parent
Member Avatar
Principal
Sounds as though the BOE was a bit arbitrary and capricious.
Offline Profile Goto Top
 
c3hull
Member Avatar
Principal
Tyler_Parent
Jan 5 2006, 03:28 PM
Sounds as though the BOE was a bit arbitrary and capricious.

I do agree!
Offline Profile Goto Top
 
« Previous Topic · Livonia Neighbors Archive · Next Topic »
Locked Topic